Direct Mail to Play Key Role in 2004 Elections
By Tania Valdemoro
Elizabeth Garrett
David Magleby
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Expect politicians and special-interest groups to repeat the successful election tactics they used in recent elections as they vie for votes this November, two academics who study elections told attendees at the Western Knight Center for Specialized Journalism’s seminar on campaign finance.
“The ground war has been increasing because it works,” said Dr. David B. Magelby, professor of political science at Brigham Young University.
The “ground war,” according to Magelby is a deluge of direct campaign strategies targeted at specific voter groups, as well as voter mobilization efforts by both the Republican and Democratic parties to persuade “voters that are persuadable and can be mobilized” before Election Day. So called ground war campaign tactics include direct mail appeals, phone solicitation, e-mail, even door-to-door canvassing to identify and mobilize potential supporters.
Voters in 17 battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Iowa will feel the brunt of the ground war because these states are expected to make or break the candidacy of both President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry, his Democratic rival.
The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA), more commonly known as McCain-Feingold, bans corporations and unions from advocating for the election of defeat of federal candidates over the airwaves within 60 days of a general election or 30 days of a primary.
That means voters can expect even more negative mail in their boxes before November than they received in 2002. To show how much mail voters an expect in the targeted states, Magelby pointed to a study showing that Arkansas voters received an average of nine pieces of direct mail each day in the last three weeks of the 2002 campaign while voters in New Mexico received 11 pieces and those in South Dakota received 19 pieces during the same period.
Personal contact with voters will also be key, said Magelby, adding that organizations conducting get-out-the-vote campaigns are already entering voter data into their Palm Pilots after they canvass people.
And just wait until the critical last days of the campaign. Magelby said the 72 Hour Task Force, a Republican voter mobilization group, will be out in full force during the last 72 hours, as will their Democratic counterparts. Both parties are well aware that Bush won the presidency by a 537-vote margin in Florida.
Even more money will flow into more initiative campaigns as groups try to either bypass entrenched interests at the statehouse or preserve existing legislation from amendments, said Elizabeth Garrett, a law professor at the University of Southern California who is involved with the university’s Initiative and Referendum Institute.
Initiatives also undermine campaign finance reform, said Garrett. They are a way for politicians and others to circumvent campaign contribution limits. She expects spending on initiatives to increase during this election cycle.
Although 76 out of 350 initiatives, or 22 percent, made it to the ballot in 24 states in 2000, Garrett said, initiatives are becoming more popular because voters feel alienated. For example, California voters ousted Gov. Gray Davis last October after his popularity plummeted over his handling of the energy crisis and his support for an increase in the car tax. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) spent $1.8 million of his own money to make sure the recall initiative had enough signatures to qualify.
According to Garrett’s nationwide survey of initiatives that will be on the November ballot, the majority of them concern government reform. They range from redistricting reform in California, Colorado and Texas to Election Day voter registration in Alaska and legislators’ salaries in Washington.
Tax reform is another big issue. Montana and Nebraska voters will consider initiatives calling for voter approval for taxes, while South Dakota and Idaho voters will consider initiatives on sales tax exemptions. And initiatives involving social issues - like smoking bans and abortion restrictions - will find their way onto the ballots in California, Michigan, Oregon, Maine and Washington.
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